CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 46

CropGPT - Cocoa

This episode offers an in-depth analysis of the global cocoa market as of November 16, 2025.

• In the Ivory Coast, cocoa production remains robust, supported by favorable weather that has enhanced pod development and bean drying efficiency. Harvest volumes are 7 percent above the five-year average. However, port arrivals have dropped by 9 percent year over year. This is not due to reduced output, but rather early-season logistical bottlenecks and farmers delaying shipments.
• Ghana is also experiencing strong agricultural conditions, with rapid pod development and favorable feedback from farmers suggesting a strong upcoming harvest. Nonetheless, softer chocolate sales in North America and Europe are placing downward pressure on global demand and prices.
• Conversely, Nigeria is facing an anticipated 11 percent drop in cocoa output. Structural inefficiencies and poor weather are contributing factors, potentially causing supply constraints in markets reliant on Nigerian cocoa.
• Globally, cocoa demand is weakening, as reflected by lower processing (grinding) activity in North America, Asia, and Europe. This slowdown is occurring despite rising production levels in key countries. While the addition of cocoa to the Bloomberg Commodity Index could stimulate speculative interest, it is unlikely to offset the impact of declining chocolate consumption and growing supply.
• Export patterns reinforce these concerns. The Ivory Coast, despite strong production, is experiencing reduced export volumes, while U.S. cocoa stock levels are falling. Although tight stock availability might offer some price support, rising global production estimates point to a likely surplus unless demand conditions change substantially.